Contributor Jeff Parks
I kept my expectations tempered Tuesday. As a loyal Democrat, I have much too often been disappointed on Election Day (2000, 2002, and 2004 all still come to mind). However, I think that the midterm elections on Tuesday proved that this country might not be as conservative as we once thought (like two years ago). Here are some of my observations from Tuesday’s elections:
- South Dakota had a referendum on the table that would have banned all abortions in the state, regardless of circumstance. South Dakota, considered one of the more conservative states in the Union, defeated the referendum by a vote of 55-45%. Maybe this nation is not quite as conservative as we thought.
- A mandate on the Iraq war was delivered … and if you were a Republican, that was not a good thing. Even moderate Republicans who opposed the war and even opposed President Bush, like Lincoln Chaffee of Rhode Island, were defeated. It isn’t that the United States is sick of Republican leadership, it is just that they are looking for a change.
- South Carolina finally showed some sense. I think it was a forgone conclusion that Mark Sanford would roll to victory. Even I predicted that back in April. However, Jim Rex showed that the job of the top dog in education is better left to those with experience in education. What does it say about Karen Floyd that she barely won her home county (Spartanburg)? Remember, Spartanburg County is probably one of the more conservative counties in the state, and they failed to support their own.
- The Democrats are sitting pretty for the 2008 elections. Right now, it is obvious that the clout of the Republican Party rests in the South. A large reason why the Republicans are winning that support is because of the Evangelical base here in the South. That Evangelical base is not going to turn out for Mitt Romney, the Mormon who was governor of Massachusetts. That base is not going to turn out for Rudy Giuliani, a Republican who has some liberal viewpoints on certain social issues. That base will also not come out considering that many state initiated referendums like gay marriage are now off of the table. I think that 2008 would be a perfect opportunity for the Democrats to run a Populist, southern candidate like John Edwards, Mark Warner, or even Joe Biden or Tom Vilsack to win a southern state or two.
- My last observation: Bush will see his numbers rebound now that he has a Democratic Congress. Democrats will offer new solutions on Iraq that President Bush might end up actually listening to. When this happens, Bush will see his numbers respond positively. Bush may also see his numbers rise with changes to his No Child Left Behind policy (unpopular with teachers) and with his immigration bill that a Republican Congress would not pass.
7 comments:
You make some good points in the next-to-last bullet point. I have a slight glimmer of optimism about our state. But, to be honest, only slight.
NVB,
I totally agree with you. I don't think we should be so happy winning 1 out of .... 7 or 8 statewide races, and I'm not that optimistic about the SC voters yet. If there was suppose to have been a year for us to have momentum to win around 5-7 statewide offices, this was the year. They say SC is about 15 years behind everybody else, so does that mean in the year 2020 SC will be Democrat again?
Michael.... show me a race where the democrat could match the republican dollar for dollar this year....
Jeff Parks will never be invited back to the huge 4th of July BBQ bash thrown by the Floyds.
But as someone who is not a member of either party but tends to lean conservative I am glad that we are having change. Not saying that I think the Democrats have every answer but people are just fed up right now. The Republicans and Bush have had the power and have done nothing with it......except cut some taxes for some people.
I am also glad that people didnt just look at the R or D beside someones name in certain races and vote for them. And yes I am still telling you that I would not have voted for John Kerry had him and Bush been on the docket this past Tuesday. I really really wanted someone else besides Bush 2 years ago but all I was offered was Kerry.....give me Joe Lieberman and he will get my vote. I like Obama too.
Anybody but Kerry or Dean in 04 and I would have voted for them.
Mitt Romney is already becoming the candidate of the evangelical base. Expect within the next six months for a large portion of the state's political leaders who are evangelical and for those active in evangelical social causes to line up behind him.
He's been in the state three times in the past month reaching out to evangelical leaders with some success, and has already made a lot of headway into cementing that part of the GOP electorate in the Midwest and mountains states.
you're right, and Katon Dawson is his #1 fan as well
Anonymous,
That is what you call a "honeymoon period." Of course Evangelicals are going to like Mitt Romney now. They are wining and dining him. If, and that is a big IF, he does get elected, they want to make sure that they get a piece of the pie. The biggest way to let someone else eat your slice of pie is to alienate the baker right off of the bat.
What is going to happen when he becomes THE candidate though? What about when they start questioning him about his faith and how his beliefs fit in line with the Evangelical Southern Baptists? Then we shall see.
Don't suddenly assume because he is getting his picture taken with a bunch of smiling Evangelicals that they are firmly lined up in his corner.
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