Goober Pyle off of the Andy Griffith Show----US House of Rep. John Spratt
In the Sunday edition of The Spartanburg Herald-Journal, better known to some of you as the official guidebook to the South Carolina Republican Party, the online section was highlighted by an article musing the political future of John Spratt, the Congressman from the 5th district of South Carolina. Spratt is somewhat of a political ibis in South Carolina. In a state where Democrats are disappearing faster than Bush staffers, Spratt has been able to continually win re-election, often times by significant margins. However, it seems that this time Spratt might be vulnerable. He won easily in 2004, however his challenger garnered almost 40% of the vote while only spending a couple of grand. While the moderate Democrat Spratt won fairly easily, George W. Bush also won fairly easily over John Kerry in Spratt's district.
Spratt will not lose in 2006 and here is why:
1. The Republican Party is reeling: The Republicans in any other year might have been able to provide the resources to defeat Spratt, however with the Elephants getting the better part of the blame for high oil prices, the war in Iraq, and a series of policy blunders by Dubya, they are going to have fight hard to retain some seats in more competitive districts.
2. Early Money is Like Yeast - Yes, Spratt's challenger does have $600,000 on hand, however Spratt has well over a million bucks on hand. If you are a challenger, you have to at the very least be even with the incumbent to have a shot at overcoming the disadvantage of people not knowing you.
3. South Carolina General Election Has Little Appeal - If Mark Sanford were the type of governor who rallied the Republican base, then Spratt's challenger might have a shot. However, Sanford is a controversial figure. He will win re-election in 2006, however he will not turn out people to the polls in huge numbers to vote for him, thus bringing a trickle down effect on the rest of the ballot.
My prediction is that Spratt wins comfortably in 2006, BUT loses in 2008. In 2008, a presidential election year, the Republicans will have a candidate on the national ticket who is not as divisive as a George W. Bush. People will turn out to vote for that figure, and the trickle down effect will end up defeating John Spratt.
17 comments:
I would also like to make a note, Spratt's Congressional district covers all 3 area codes that SC has. His lines are all over the place. This is a great man who has a close and sharp eye on the Bush Administration up their in Washington.
You are dead wrong on this, Norman's poll numbers are looking as if he is ahead about 2-3% points right now, but of course, Nov. is a long ways away and I think he will only extend the lead even more.
Do you think that Moore or Willis will turn out a strong vote for Spratt? The battle is probably going to be at the grassroots level in this race. You may be right about the outcome, however. It's a strange election year when the highest profile race in SC is the Treasurer's primary. Sanford may not create a multitude of voters for Norman but he'll turn out way more than whichever Democrat wins.
It's nice to have someone write on this blog that actualy has some ability and control of the English language.
Surprised you didn't post this picture next to Spratt's:
http://sbritt.com/images/goober.jpg
You seem to like stuff like that.
Anon,
Thats a good question, hmmmm whether it be Moore or Willis who wins the Primary, the Democrats have got to create and build excitment for him. You are 100% right about this race being one in the grassroots level, but if Moore or Willis and the Democratic Party can't produce excitement then no, they will not turn out a strong vote for Spratt. We'll see what Jeff Parks opinion is on this in a little while.
Dear Right Wing Wacco,
Dude, where have you been? Your disappearance from my blogsite isn't correlated to Bush's weak poll numbers is it? It's about time you came back! My writing still isn't an A+++ but ......I've made some strides in the right direction. :) And by the way, I can do audio now ,so whenever you feel ready to do a 5 minute audio debate with me, give me a call!
Jeff, good job guest blogging. You hit some good points, but I have to beg to differ about 2008. I understand that Spratt has to first win in 2006, but you assume the Democrats won't have a decent candidate.
The folks at the Republican Party will tell you that is John Spratt's seat as long as he wants it.
Dear Anon,
Thanks for the idea of the Goober picture, I have uploaded it in the blog now! They do look ALOT alike
Thanks for being a good sport and posting the Goober picture.
No problem, it was a good idea and we were able to get a quick laugh, so mission accomplished
I've worked on more than one 5th District race. While my heart would like to see Spratt gone, reality has taught me another.
When Spratt first ran back in the early 80s, there wasn't a single GOP legislator in the district. Now, the GOP has more than a few a few seasoned top-notch picks. Solicitor Tommy Pope, York Sheriff Bryant, Senators Gregory and Hayes, Reps what-his-name from Hartsville could make the list.
By comparison, the Democratic bench to replace Spratt is pretty shallow, with the best of the few probably being Vinnie Sheheen. But that's WHEN Spratt retires, which isn't 2006.
Spratt's people clearly learned a lot from their 1994 close-call with Bigham. They learned the district well, and in 1998 and 2000, when they stomped Burkhold and then my friend Carl Gullick, they showed it.
However, it's been two cycles since those tough races. I'm thinking his ground operation may be out of shape, but still, with his name ID, bank account and the lowest GOP enthusiasm since '98, Spratt is gonna be tough to beat this year, or any other.
I say Norman pulls it real close, mostly with the help of the GOP voters that have moved into Kershaw, Lancaster, Newberry and York Counties in recent years and don't know John Spratt from Jack Spratt, but that's not enough.
Final result: Spratt gets re-elected with 53-54 percent.
If Spratt has a tough fight and runs close this year, and the GOP holds the House this year, and looks good in 2008, Spratt may then decide to retire. But that decision is two years away.
Those in the GOP who wanted to take him should rue the day they didn't float another 100K or so to help Larry Bigham in 1994, when Spratt was really down for the count.
My man Jeff, I think earl said the things I wanted to say. You do a great job writing, anything you want to write a piece for Devinely Southern, you are more than welcome!
frank - was that writing invite for me or jeff?
Earl,
I think he meant Jeff, but...I'm not 100% sure either, I'll try and find out.
I have one large criticism here for all of the "Spratt is a Good Man" people. Someone please explain to me how Spratt can stand next to Clyburn at these Town Hall propaganda meetings and say that putting Social Security funds into better earning tools is a bad idea? His disclosure statement (about 25 pages long) has his stock portfolio at between 1.8 and 6.6 million, and not a dime of it is in T-Bills. Sounds a bit hypocritical.
I think John Spratt would make a good House Speaker. He's got the experience and it would be great to have a Southern Democrat in charge of the House. Spratt's Democratic image would destroy years of Republican Marketing of what a Democat looks like.
John Spratt is an embarrassment to South Carolina and the Country. Just ask the people in Winnsboro. He has hooked up Nancy Pelosi from San Francisco and he is spying on private lives of our high school kids.
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